This is the second part to the Myanmar (which I’m now calling Burma) post. It wasn’t supposed to be in two parts, but after receiving some comments and e-mails about the first one, I’ve decided write this very opinionated post, in contrast to the last one which mostly provided basic information. I suggest you read both.

The Burmese governement is ridiculously corrupt and they operate only for self-interest, not in the interest of the people who live there. Since 1962, Burma has been under a military dictatorship and the situation has gone from bad to worse. Unfortunately, I think that there is no hope for the Burmese people unless they plot an incredibly well planned overthrow of the current government.

As things stand now, the people are being oppressed and the military is doing the oppressing. The people don’t like the current government, but they tolerate it because the government hasn’t been involved in their everyday lives for years. If they ever want to be truly free, it would require untrained citizens overthrowing a miltary government.

Right now the Burmese people need their government more than ever. I hope that the Burmese government starts letting in aid to the people who need it most. I’m sure that this will eventually happen in some form, but the relief workers will not be nearly as free as they need to be to do their jobs properly and the victims of the cyclone needed aid ten days ago. Some estimates say that if disease sets in the death toll could rise to a million. I’m sure that’s an upper limit, but either way there are thousands of people dead or dying who don’t need to be.

The international community also needs to step to the plate. I can’t support military intervention in Burma without knowing a lot more about the topic, but sanctions are a slippery slope. Some corporations have been accused of financing the Burmese government, despite their human rights violations, and the United States has considered sanctions in the past, though China is against them. So now we have to decide if offending China or hurting the Burmese government is better. I’m not really in a position to judge, but I would err on the side of no sanctions. We don’t want to offend China, but even more importantly, we could end up hurting the people of Burma rather than their government.

Given the difficulty of the situation, there are no easy solutions. It’s not a situation where convincing the right people will lead to a favorable solution. Of course, it’s possible that I’m missing something because I’m not a Burma expert, but based on what I know, an overthrow of the current government will have to be a revolution by the people of Burma.

Once again I enter into discussion about a topic with which I have no formal training. My opinions are based on what I have discovered in a few hours of reading, so if you disagree with me, be sure to let me know why.

Nine days after a cyclone that has or will kill anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 people the first relief flights from the United States are finally landing. If you’ve been following the news, you’ll have heard about the military leaders of Myanmar seizing all aid shipments into the country causing the United Nations to cease relief flights. The junta is apparently afraid what several thousand relief workers will do to their power in the country.

“Power” is an interesting term when applied to the government of Myanmar. The capital, which is Naypyidaw, is in the middle of the country. Supposedly this is supposed to make every part of the country easily accessible, but it is about 10 hours away from other major cities like Rangoon or Mandalay. Quite simply, it’s in the middle of nowhere and public access to the capital is extremely limited. There’s a feeling that the move from the old capital city in 2005 was motivated by fears of an invasion from the United States or another Asian power. China has recently been pressuring the military government to set up a parliamentary system and they did, but it’s set up so that the military enforces all laws and can invoke martial law at any time. A bit like the system of government George Bush would set up if he could.

There is opposition to the current government in the form of the Burma Party. (Myanmar and Burma are used pretty much interchangeably. There is an international debate as to the name that should be used; I’ve used Myanmar because I’ve seen it most frequently in coverage of Cyclone Nargis). Opposition groups continue to use the name Burma as a way to show that they do not recognize the current government. Aung San Suu Kyi has pushed for democracy for years and her National League for Democracy even won an election in 1990, but was never allowed to govern. She has been kept under house arrest, but General Than, the leader of the junta, is rumored to be willing to meet with her, though it’s unclear if those rumors are genuine. Kyi won the Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in 1991.

There was a professor from Carleton College on the News Hour with Jim Lehrer tonight named Tun Myint. His position was that the military was not really in power in a day-to-day way. Myint mentioned how the people of Myanmar are generally self-governing for the everyday matters that would be referred to a government entity in the United States. Because the capital is so remote (the capital is also the military base of the country), there is not much connection from the people to the government. In recent years, according to Myint, the military has lost favor with the people because they no longer view the current government as something compatible with their culture and their religious beliefs. It may also have something to do with the living conditions which were described like this:

We have seen since 1962 the mismanaging of the economy and natural resources has led Burma to now the standard of living in Burma is lower than even Cambodia and Laos.

And the UN thinks the government isn’t in control either. There are certainly worries of corruption (which is precisely why no relief organization feels comfortable just handing over their supplies to the junta), but the Myanmarese government is financed in part by a booming drug trade. The amount of drug production decreased 80% from 1998 to 2006, but the number of productive hectares has increased 29% this year because of corruption, poverty, and lack of government control. There have also been several uprisings that have been quelled, sometimes by payoffs.

In the course of doing research for a presenation I’m giving about the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, I made a contact with a Princeton graduate in Thailand working as an English teacher for a few years. He remarked on how the tsunami created an enormous opportunity for immigrants from Myanmar to live in Thailand and replace the lost population. The borders are, according to him, porous and I imagine Thailand will be seeing more immigration in the coming years.

The international community is divided on how to resolve the Myanmar problem. With the cyclone and relief bringing the issue back into the spotlight, it’s likely that there will be increased calls for government reform. I doubt it will happen. The government isolated themselves specifically for the purpose of resisting rebellion or intervention of any kind. China opposes sanctions, saying “sanctions or pressure will not help to resolve the issue.” I’m guessing that’s why they’ve taken an interest in trying to make the Myanmarese government be, or at least appear, more democratic. I don’t know what their interests are in Myanmar, but China is intent on relieving international pressure for sanctions.